We don't often enough look back at the prior year’s predictions to see if they actually came to fruition. That is the purpose of this analysis. I have picked out a few key areas in APMdigest's 2017 Application Performance Management Predictions, and analyzed which predictions actually came true.
Start with Looking Back at 2017 APM Predictions - Did They Come True? Part 1, to see which predictions did not come true.
The following predictions were spot on, and outline key shifts in the landscape for 2017:
Confusion around AIOps
GARTNER RENAMED IT, WHICH WAS THE PLAN ALL ALONG
AIOps tools today are not a reality, but hopefully it will happen over time
Any time there is a shift in technologies, where vendors are moving from an older technology concept to a newer one Gartner adapts the market definition. In the case of ITOA, as the core concept was reporting on data, which needed to, and eventually moved towards automated analysis of data via machine learning (ML). At the time of advancements in ML Gartner shifted the definition from ITOA to Algorithmic IT Operations (AIOps). Vendors began adopting and applying these new capabilities, and AIOps was becoming a reality. The next phase is automating these analyses and taking action on the data and insights. Hence Gartner changed it to Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations and expanded the scope significantly. AIOps tools today are not a reality (see reasons above), but hopefully it will happen over time. This shift was always the plan at Gartner, but something which needed to evolve over a couple of years. The adoption of ML has been rapid, but we are a far cry from true AI today, even when vendors claim they may have it. They do not, at least not unless they are IBM, Google, Facebook, or a very small handful of other companies. Most vendors in the IT Operations space are not yet taking advantage of public cloud providers’ AI platforms.
Better predictive analysis and machine learning
This one was spot on, we've seen a speedy adoption of more advanced ML, and better predictive capabilities in most products on the market. Although some vendors have had baselining for over a decade, now all products do some form of baselining in the monitoring space. Much more work is being done to improve capabilities, and it's about time!
APM products increasing scale
BUT STILL LACK MARKET LEADING TIME SERIES FEATURES
In 2017 APM products have begun to scale much more efficiently than in the past (with a couple of exceptions), but there is still a lack of market-leading time-series features in APM products, especially when looking at granular data (second level). There is yet another set of tools used for scalable and well-visualized time series from commercial entities and open source projects. I expect this to change eventually, but for now, we have fragmentation in this area.
APM tools evolve to support serverless
This prediction came true in 2017, but defining what "support" of serverless (which I prefer to call FaaS) entails is a nebulous term. Most APM tools support collecting events from the code, which require code changes. Code changes are not ideal for those building or managing FaaS, but that's the current state. FaaS vendors are quite closed in exposing the internals of their systems, and some have provided proprietary methods of tracing them. I predict this opens up in 2-3 years to allow a more automated way of monitoring FaaS.
APM in DevOps Toolchain
This one has been true for the last 4+ years in fact, but as toolchains increase in complexity the integration of APM into both CI and CD pipelines continues to mature. In the CI/CD space, more advanced commercial solutions include better integration with APM tools as part of their products. Increased polish is needed, and will continue over the coming years.
Hybrid application management
HAS BEEN TRUE FOR YEARS
Hybrid has been typical for a while now and hence is not a prediction but a historical observation. APM tools running at the application layer have been managing across infrastructure for years, I would guess 8+ years, in fact. Today's applications are increasingly hybrid, meaning they encompass several infrastructures, languages, and frameworks. Due to this diversity, APM is critical in managing highly distributed interconnected applications.
APM + IoT
BUT HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR YEARS, AND NOW PRODUCTS BEGIN TO EMERGE
Please provide feedback on my assessment on twitter @jkowall or LinkedIn, and if you enjoyed reading this let me know and I’ll be happy to provide my analysis of the 2018 APMdigest predictions next year!
Managing emerging technologies such as Cloud, microservices and containers and SDx are driving organizations to redefine their IT monitoring strategies, according to a new study titled 17 Areas Shaping the Information Technology Operations Market in 2018 from Digital Enterprise Journal (DEJ) ...
Balancing digital innovation with security is critical to helping businesses deliver strong digital experiences, influencing factors such maintaining a competitive edge, customer satisfaction, customer trust, and risk mitigation. But some businesses struggle to meet that balance according to new data ...
In the course of researching, documenting and advising on user experience management needs and directions for more than a decade, I've found myself waging a quiet (and sometimes not so quiet) war with several industry assumptions. Chief among these is the notion that user experience management (UEM) is purely a subset of application performance management (APM). This APM-centricity misses some of UEM's most critical value points, and in a basic sense fails to recognize what UEM is truly about ...
We now live in the kind of connected world where established businesses that are not evolving digitally are in jeopardy of becoming extinct. New research shows companies are preparing to make digital transformation a priority in the near future. However most of them have a long way to go before achieving any kind of mastery over the multiple disciples required to effectively innovate ...
IT Transformation can result in bottom-line benefits that drive business differentiation, innovation and growth, according to new research conducted by Enterprise Strategy Group (ESG) ...
While regulatory compliance is an important activity for medium to large businesses, easy and cost-effective solutions can be difficult to find. Network visibility is an often overlooked, but critically important, activity that can help lower costs and make life easier for IT personnel that are responsible for these regulatory compliance solutions ...
This is the third in a series of three blogs directed at recent EMA research on the digital war room. In this blog, we'll look at three areas that have emerged in a spotlight in and of themselves — as signs of changing times — let alone as they may impact digital war room decision making. They are the growing focus on development and agile/DevOps; the impacts of cloud; and the growing need for security and operations (SecOps) to team more effectively ...
As we've seen, hardware is at the root of a large proportion of data center outages, and the costs and consequences are often exacerbated when VMs are affected. The best answer, therefore, is for IT pros to get back to basics ...
Risk is relative. The Peltzman Effect describes how humans change behavior when risk factors are reduced. They often act more recklessly and drive risk right back up. The phenomenon is recognized by many economists, its effects have been studied in the field of medicine, and I'd argue it is at the root of an interesting trend in IT — namely the increasing cost of downtime despite our more reliable virtualized environments ...
How do enterprises prepare for the future that our Cloud Vision 2020 survey forecasts? I see three immediate takeaways to focus on ...