Adobe expects US online holiday sales to hit $221.8 billion this holiday shopping season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31), representing 4.8% growth year-over-year (YoY).
In the 2022 season, shoppers spent $211.7 billion online, and saw 3.5% YoY growth. Never-before seen discounts, and the increased usage of the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) flexible spending method, which is expected to drive $17 billion in online spending (vs. $14.5 billion in 2022, up 16.9%), will drive spending this season as consumers look to stretch their budgets when making purchases.
Additionally, shopping on mobile devices is expected to hit a major milestone, surpassing desktop and driving over half (51.2%) of all online spending this season.
Cyber Week — the shopping period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday — is expected to drive $37.2 billion in online spending, up 5.4% YoY and representing 16.8% of the holiday season.
Adobe expects Cyber Monday will remain the season's and year's biggest shopping day, driving a record $12 billion in spending, up 6.1% YoY. Black Friday online sales are set to grow by 5.7% YoY to $9.6 billion, with Thanksgiving growing 5.5% YoY to $5.6 billion. Driven by deep discounts, these big shopping days remain important anchor points for the season.
"Despite an unpredictable economic environment, where consumers face several challenges including rising interest rates, we expect strong e-commerce growth this season on account of record discounts and flexible payment methods," said Patrick Brown, VP of Growth Marketing at Adobe. "Buy Now, Pay Later in particular has become increasingly mainstream and will make it easier for shoppers to hit the buy button, especially on mobile devices where over half of online spending will take place."
Additional Adobe Analytics Insights
■ Mobile shopping overtakes desktop for the first time: Adobe anticipates over half (51.2%) of online spending will take place on mobile devices this holiday season, a milestone reflecting improved small screen shopping experiences. Mobile spending is set to hit a record $113 billion, up 13.7% YoY, with usage peaking on days when consumers are likely with friends and family, such as Thanksgiving and Christmas.
■ Earlier shopping expected this year: A second Prime Day event (Oct. 10-11) and other promotional events will drive early discounting, enticing consumers to start shopping earlier. October's Prime Day event is expected to bring in $8.1 Billion (up 6.1% YoY), with discounts as high as 18%. July's Prime Day event drove record online sales for the retail industry overall, with $12.7 billion spent (up 6.1% YoY). Adobe's survey of over 1,000 US consumers found that 49% of respondents expect to start this year's holiday shopping in October.
Based on Adobe Analytics data, the analysis provides the most comprehensive view into US e-commerce by analyzing commerce transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.
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