US Online Sales to Increase 14.8 Percent for 2018 Holiday Shopping Season
November 19, 2018
Share this

US online holiday sales will increase 14.8 percent, totaling $124.1 billion in 2018, while offline retail spending is expected to increase a modest 2.7 percent, according to Adobe's online shopping predictions for the 2018 holiday season (Nov. 1 through Dec. 31) powered by Adobe Sensei.

Cyber Monday will set a new record as the largest- and fastest-growing online shopping day of the year

Cyber Monday will set a new record as the largest- and fastest-growing online shopping day of the year with $7.7 billion in sales, a 17.6 percent increase year over year (YoY).

Online sales between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. Pacific Time on Cyber Monday are expected to drive more revenue than an average full day in 2018, with conversions hitting the highest rate of the year, 7.3 percent, during these golden hours of online retail.

Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to increase by 16.5 percent, generating $3.3 billion. Nearly one out of five dollars this holiday season will be spent between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, generating $23.4 billion or 19 percent of total online sales. One extra calendar day between Cyber Monday and Christmas Day will give retailers a $284 million boost in sales. A record number of days will hit new revenue milestones, with 36 days surpassing $2 billion compared to just 22 days in 2017.


“As online shopping surges with another record-breaking holiday season, the retailers with compelling websites coupled with physical store locations will have the advantage,” said John Copeland, Head of Marketing and Customer Insights at Adobe. “Many shoppers want to interact with retailers’ products and the brand in-store, and the ability to pick up online orders in-store within a matter of hours can’t be underestimated.”

More survey finding include:

■ Retailers with online and physical footprints are expected to see 28 percent higher conversion online in comparison to retailers lacking a traditional storefront. Adobe Analytics data anticipates shoppers increasingly buying online and picking up items in-store (BOPIS) during the holiday season. BOPIS has increased 119 percent since January 2018 across all retailers and over 250 percent for large retailers. A survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers shows nearly half (47 percent) expect to browse in-store for a product they intend to buy online later, jumping to 58 percent among millennials.

Completed cart orders happen over 20 percent less on smartphones than desktop, as a result of abandonment from sub-optimal checkout experiences

■ Smartphones continue to gain share as consumers’ preferred devices for online shopping, representing 48.3 percent of visits and 27.2 percent of revenue. Mobile revenue is up 11.6 percent YoY. Yet, completed cart orders happen over 20 percent less on smartphones than desktop, as a result of abandonment from sub-optimal checkout experiences. Closing this gap equates to $9 billion in mobile sales. Consumers using mobile apps will spend more time browsing and complete sales two times more often than on the web.

■ Tablets are on the decline, making up 8.8 percent of visits (down 30 percent in four years) and just 9.6 percent of sales.

■ Voice-assisted shopping is on the rise, with 21 percent of consumers reporting they are planning to reorder frequently-purchased items and 17 percent placing one-time orders for in-store pickup using their voice activated devices.

■ Retailers will be able to capitalize on loyal customers that go directly to their website to make a purchase, with revenue per visit (RPV) rising the most at 36 percent. Search has the second highest RPV growth at 23 percent, followed by helper sites like RetailMeNot (15 percent) and email at 8 percent.

■ Social referral traffic will generate 11 percent less RPV compared to Q4 2016. It is the only marketing channel to see a decline in RPV, despite the increase in referral traffic coming from social. Adobe attributes this to consumers’ weakening trust in social networks. Shoppers are also expected to consult social media sites 25 percent less for gift ideas this year.

■ More consumers will stay home on Thanksgiving Day. Sixty percent report they won’t shop in stores on Thanksgiving Day, up from 40 percent in 2016.

Survey Methodology: Adobe leverages Adobe Sensei, Adobe’s artificial intelligence and machine learning technology, to identify retail insights from trillions of data points that flow through Adobe Analytics and Magento Commerce Cloud, part of Adobe Experience Cloud. Adobe Analytics analyzes one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 55 million SKUs and 80 of the largest 100 U.S. web retailers. Adobe’s analysis spans large, medium and small retailers across over 50 merchandise categories, powered by Magento Commerce Cloud, to provide an accurate view of online shopping in the US. Adobe Experience Cloud manages more than 200 trillion data transactions annually. Companion research is based on a survey of over 1,000 US consumers in October 2018.

Share this

The Latest

February 01, 2023

As organizations continue to adapt to a post-pandemic surge in cloud-based productivity, the 2023 State of the Network report from Viavi Solutions details how end-user awareness remains critical and explores the benefits — and challenges — of cloud and off-premises network modernization initiatives ...

February 01, 2023

In the network engineering world, many teams have yet to realize the immense benefit real-time collaboration tools can bring to a successful automation strategy. By integrating a collaboration platform into a network automation strategy — and taking advantage of being able to share responses, files, videos and even links to applications and device statuses — network teams can leverage these tools to manage, monitor and update their networks in real time, and improve the ways in which they manage their networks ...

January 31, 2023

A recent study revealed only an alarming 5% of IT decision makers who report having complete visibility into employee adoption and usage of company-issued applications, demonstrating they are often unknowingly careless when it comes to software investments that can ultimately be costly in terms of time and resources ...

January 30, 2023

Everyone has visibility into their multi-cloud networking environment, but only some are happy with what they see. Unfortunately, this continues a trend. According to EMA's latest research, most network teams have some end-to-end visibility across their multi-cloud networks. Still, only 23.6% are fully satisfied with their multi-cloud network monitoring and troubleshooting capabilities ...

January 26, 2023

As enterprises work to implement or improve their observability practices, tool sprawl is a very real phenomenon ... Tool sprawl can and does happen all across the organization. In this post, though, we'll focus specifically on how and why observability efforts often result in tool sprawl, some of the possible negative consequences of that sprawl, and we'll offer some advice on how to reduce or even avoid sprawl ...

January 25, 2023

As companies generate more data across their network footprints, they need network observability tools to help find meaning in that data for better decision-making and problem solving. It seems many companies believe that adding more tools leads to better and faster insights ... And yet, observability tools aren't meeting many companies' needs. In fact, adding more tools introduces new challenges ...

January 24, 2023

Driven by the need to create scalable, faster, and more agile systems, businesses are adopting cloud native approaches. But cloud native environments also come with an explosion of data and complexity that makes it harder for businesses to detect and remediate issues before everything comes to a screeching halt. Observability, if done right, can make it easier to mitigate these challenges and remediate incidents before they become major customer-impacting problems ...

January 23, 2023

The spiraling cost of energy is forcing public cloud providers to raise their prices significantly. A recent report by Canalys predicted that public cloud prices will jump by around 20% in the US and more than 30% in Europe in 2023. These steep price increases will test the conventional wisdom that moving to the cloud is a cheap computing alternative ...

January 19, 2023

Despite strong interest over the past decade, the actual investment in DX has been recent. While 100% of enterprises are now engaged with DX in some way, most (77%) have begun their DX journey within the past two years. And most are early stage, with a fourth (24%) at the discussion stage and half (49%) currently transforming. Only 27% say they have finished their DX efforts ...

January 18, 2023

While most thought that distraction and motivation would be the main contributors to low productivity in a work-from-home environment, many organizations discovered that it was gaps in their IT systems that created some of the most significant challenges ...